Introduction

The operations team deployed ULSFO on February 2014 and we have done some data analysis to help them quantify the impact of the rollout on latency.

The exact dates of the rollout by country/region codes can be found in operations/dns' git history: https://git.wikimedia.org/summary/?r=operations/dns.git

Methodology

First stab at data analysis includes only calculating percentile 50 and 90 for 3 regions: Ocenia, Asia (and SE Asia) and North America for a 3 week period. The week of the 26th of January (week1), which precedes the ULSFO deployment, the following one (week2, when the deployment was taking place) and the one after (week3).

Data comes from Event Logging Navigation Timing Schema (https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Schema:NavigationTiming). We have removed mobile data and only used data for which user was anonymous, i.e. not logged in. We have also removed redirects from dataset and for plots we are only considering requests on a cold cache (i.e. not cached). Our original dataset had about 6 million datapoints, with the restrictions of removing mobile data, warm data..etc, we were left with about 1.7 million datapoints for two weeks of data for the whole world. The daily dataset we have to calculate weekly percentiles greatly differs by region. For Oceania we have about 2000 points per day (for all countries) to calculate daily percentiles. For North America the size of the daily dataset is on order of magnitude greater, about 20.000 samples per day. For SE Asia the daily sample for all countries is about 11.000.

We have less data for the 15th of February as there was a change of Navigation Schema on that date, to rule out any changes to the EL sampling or implementation we are just using data that we know comes from the same schema.

Select from navigation timing table is below. We have filtered these records to plot only times for requests which a dnslookup is happening, we have also removed outliers.

select timestamp, event_requestStart,event_responseEnd,
event_mediaWikiLoadComplete,event_domInteractive, event_originCountry,
event_dnsLookup,event_connectStart,event_responseStart,
event_connectEnd from NavigationTiming_6703470 where timestamp < 20140216000000 
and timestamp > 20140126000000  and event_mobileMode is NULL 
and event_redirectCount is NULL and event_isAnon=True order by timestamp asc

Measures

All Browsers

mediaWikiLoadComplete This checkpoint is of our own measure and thus present for all browsers, we are plotting it below only for browsers that report network times and thus we are only plotting it for browsers that implement the navigationTiming API. It measures the time from mediawiki's startup.js to the tick following the load event. This has an impact on UX as the lower this variable is, the fastest the page is rendering.

Navigation Timing API measures

This data point is provided by request timing API and thus not available on IE8 and below. See: http://caniuse.com/#feat=nav-timing Note that big improvements in network time do not necessarily translate in faster load pagetimes overall.

We have plotted here responseStart - connectStart time which represents the time spent in the network until first byte arrives minus the time spent in DNS lookups (for a more visual explanation take a look at the Navigation timing graph) If there was a tcp connection drop the time will include the setup of the new connection.

Results

Latency: Plots

There are substantial drops in latencies in the OC and Asia region. Differences are not so substantial for North America. There seems to be anomalous data for the 14th of February for the SE Asia region.

The time to 1st byte measure displays bigger gains, it is important to understand that improvements on network time do not translate directly in gains on overall page latency. For example, if we need 4 network trips to compose a page and if the round trips 2,3,4 are happening while I am parsing the main document (round trip 1) which is huge (let's say) I will only see improvements from the 1st request. Subsequent ones are done in parallel and totally hidden under the fetching of the first one.

Total Latencies Oceania (ms)
Total Latencies SE Asia (ms)
Total Latencies North America (ms)

Network time minus DNS lookup Oceania (ms)
Network time minus DNS lookup SE Asia (ms)
Network time minus DNS lookup North America (ms)

DomInteractive Oceania (ms)
DOMInteractive SE Asia (ms)
DOMInteractive North America (ms)

Precise Differences on Overall Page Latency after Deployment per Country

The gains of Japan and Indonesia are remarkable, page load times dropped up to 300ms. We see smaller (but measurable) improvements of 40 ms in the US too

We have calculated overall page latency for SE Asia, Oceania and North America countries for three different weeks. The week of the 26th of January (week1), which precedes the ULSFO deployment, the following one (week2, when the deployment was taking place) and the one after (week3). The overall page latency measure is the 50th weekly percentile of mediawikiLoadComplete calculated per country per week for countries for which we had at least 1000 data points per week. A bigger positive difference among weeks means the page got that much faster. Since we are measuring using data from mediawikiLoadComplete the faster times do have an impact on the UX experience, that is, users are seeing faster pages.

In order to quantify gains in page rendering time we have taken the difference between the 50th percentile of week1 and week2 and the difference between 50th percentile of week1 and week3. The ULSFO deployment is happening on week2 so it is likely that there are greater gains on later weeks (week3), the problem with calculating latency differences with later weeks is that there are too many variables that might be skewing our data. Data is spotty on the 15th of February and also on the 14th is atypical. It is hard to quantify absolute gains but looks like in Japan, Korea and Indonesia gains are of several hundreds of milliseconds. Variability of weekly percentiles seems to be around 100 ms or less.

Maps

Improvement in Page Load Time (map with carto db)

Improvement in Page Load Time (map with vega)

Data

Country	50th pctl week1 01/26 (ms)	50th pctl week2 02/02 (ms)	50th pctl week3 09/02 (ms)	Difference week1-week2	Difference week1-week3
Japan	1596.0	1484.0	1268.0	112.0	328.0
Hong Kong	1814	1802	1721	12	93
Philippines	3182	3066.5	2881	115.5	301
Vietnam	2472	2396	2253.5	76	218.5
Australia	2064.0	1919	1735.0	145.0	329.0
Malasia	2459.0	2428	2152	31.0	307.0
New Zealand	1807.0	1688	1546.0	119.0	261.0
Canada	1003.0	1009.0	993.0	-6.0	10.0 (not significant)
Korea	1525.0	1374	1172.0	151.0	353.0
Singapore	2001	1940	1712	61	289
US	1071.0	1072	1030	-1.0	41.0
Taiwan	1678	1536	1442.5	142	235.5
Thailand	2461	2457.5	2340.5	3.5	120.5
Indonesia	3675	3594.5	3290	80.5	385

Caveats

Improvements in Canada are really too small for a such a diverse dataset, we probably should not mention them. If we use data for all countries with at least 1000 samples total there are countries like Palestine or Luxembourgh reporting also 300ms dropouts so how can we quantify these drops are only relative to ULSFO? If we use data for countries that have at least 1000 samples per week data looks much more consistent and we do not see changes on the range of 300 ms anymore, other than for China (CN)

If we remove ULSFO countries we should have (in a controlled experiment) no changes in weekly percentiles for overall latency in our country dataset. This is not the case (expected, was no controlled experiment). However, variability of results among weeks is quite big. Seems like normal variability among weeks is capped at around 100ms.

Data for all non ULSFO countries is below, we are listing countries for which we have at least 1000 data points per week for a 3 week period.

ISO codes per country: http://userpage.chemie.fu-berlin.de/diverse/doc/ISO_3166.html

Country	50th pctl week1 01/26 (ms)	50th pctl week2 02/02 (ms)	50th pctl week3 09/02 (ms)	Difference week1-week2	Difference week1-week3
	1220	1208.0	1204.0	12.0	16.0
BE	913	930.0	901	-17.0	12
BG	1110.0	1109.5	1107	0.5	3.0
BA	1284	1360.0	1402	-76.0	-118
BR	1952	2001	2050.0	-49	-98.0
BY	1971.0	1970	2070	1.0	-99.0
RU	1585.0	1619.0	1678	-34.0	-93.0
RS	1242.0	1230.0	1241	12.0	1.0
LT	1037.0	1036	1000	1.0	37.0
RO	1163.0	1185.0	1147	-22.0	16.0
GT	2102	2226.0	2273	-124.0	-171
GR	1294.0	1316	1308.5	-22.0	-14.5
GE	1456.0	1409	1432.0	47.0	24.0
GB	1062	1061.0	1036.0	1.0	26.0
SV	2061	2204	2066.0	-143	-5.0
TN	2163.0	2111	2135.5	52.0	27.5
HR	1101.5	1131.0	1101	-29.5	0.5
HU	1224.5	1242	1316	-17.5	-91.5
CR	1790	1811.5	1797.5	-21.5	-7.5
VE	2395.0	2380	2507.0	15.0	-112.0
PR	1504.0	1518.0	1558	-14.0	-54.0
PT	1192	1187	1235.5	5	-43.5
PE	1781.5	1752	1858.5	29.5	-77.0
PK	2946	3109	2988.0	-163	-42.0
PL	1280	1396.0	1346	-116.0	-66
EE	1047	1060	1086	-13	-39
EG	3243.5	3140	3238	103.5	5.5
ZA	2256.0	2313	2075	-57.0	181.0
EC	2152	2105.0	2030.0	47.0	122.0
IT	1245.0	1235	1232	10.0	13.0
KZ	2282	2403	2496	-121	-214
EU	775.5	777	844.5	-1.5	-69.0
SA	2088	2044.5	2016.0	43.5	72.0
ES	1316	1315.0	1333	1.0	-17
MD	1422	1533.0	1530	-111.0	-108
UY	2124	2236	2156	-112	-32
MK	1285.5	1328	1369	-42.5	-83.5
MX	1899	1951	1961	-52	-62
FR	1288.0	1289	1238	-1.0	50.0
FI	911	1028.0	939.5	-117.0	-28.5
NL	849	850.0	818.5	-1.0	30.5
NO	935.0	935	948	0.0	-13.0
CH	841.0	873	828	-32.0	13.0
CO	1881.5	1914	1949.0	-32.5	-67.5
CN	2842	2887.0	3485.0	-45.0	-643.0
CL	2075.0	2006.0	2049.0	69.0	26.0
CZ	1109.0	1104.0	1144	5.0	-35.0
MA	2594	2432.0	2408	162.0	186
SK	1210	1183.0	1177	27.0	33
SI	997.5	1062.5	1035.0	-65.0	-37.5
SE	871	887	850	-16	21
DO	2128	2146	2225.0	-18	-97.0
DK	948.0	937.5	897.0	10.5	51.0
DE	898	901	891	-3	7
AT	886	905	874	-19	12
DZ	3061	3097.5	2969	-36.5	92
LV	1202.5	1280.0	1245	-77.5	-42.5
NULL	1343	1324.0	1329.0	19.0	14.0
TR	1478.0	1473	1511.0	5.0	-33.0
AE	1497.5	1457	1450.0	40.5	47.5
IR	3279	3422.0	3341	-143.0	-62
AM	1692	1661	1692.5	31	-0.5
AL	1447	1470.0	1420.0	-23.0	27.0
AR	2286.0	2284	2332.0	2.0	-46.0
IL	1292	1272.5	1320	19.5	-28
IN	2384	2409	2421.0	-25	-37.0
AZ	1664	1649	1660.5	15	3.5
IE	1249.5	1275.0	1235.0	-25.5	14.5
UA	1562	1566.0	1616	-4.0	-54

Reading

http://www.igvita.com/2012/04/04/measuring-site-speed-with-navigation-timing/

connectStart the time immediately before the user agent starts establishing the connection to the server to retrieve the document.

connectEnd the time immediately after the user agent finishes establishing the connection to the server to retrieve the current document.

requestStart the time immediately before the user agent starts requesting the current document from the server.

responseStart the time immediately after the user agent receives the first byte of the response from the server.

Code

Workflow to process data:

Produce cvs file from mysql select referenced above: https://gist.github.com/nuria/9052770#file-process-sql-data-change-timestamps-to-day-precision

Process cvs file and convert second timestamps to day timestamps:

https://gist.github.com/nuria/9052770#file-calculate-weekly-percentiles-per-country

Calculate daily percentiles per region:

https://gist.github.com/nuria/9052770#file-calculate-and-plot-daily-percentiles

Calculate weekly percentiles per country

See: https://gist.github.com/nuria/9052770

Times of ulsfo rollout

Ocenia
36d4233c 2014-02-04 08:51:55 -0600 OC => ulsfo,
OC maps to these countries: AS AU CK FJ FM GU KI MH MP NC NF NR NU NZ PF PG PN PW SB TK TO TV UM VU WF WS

East/Southeast Asia
1fb1dd5d 2014-02-06 13:57:01 +0200      BD => ulsfo, # Bangladesh
43d8c957 2014-02-12 17:05:46 +0200      BT => ulsfo, # Bhutan
43d8c957 2014-02-12 17:05:46 +0200      HK => ulsfo, # Hong Kong
1fb1dd5d 2014-02-06 13:57:01 +0200      ID => ulsfo, # Indonesia
5e704168 2014-02-05 07:36:13 -0600      JP => ulsfo, # Japan
465877aa 2014-02-05 21:05:44 -0600      KH => ulsfo, # Cambodia
5e704168 2014-02-05 07:36:13 -0600      KP => ulsfo, # Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
5e704168 2014-02-05 07:36:13 -0600      KR => ulsfo, # Korea, Republic of
1657beef 2014-02-06 14:39:23 +0200      MM => ulsfo, # Myanmar
1fb1dd5d 2014-02-06 13:57:01 +0200      MN => ulsfo, # Mongolia
43d8c957 2014-02-12 17:05:46 +0200      MO => ulsfo, # Macao
465877aa 2014-02-05 21:05:44 -0600      MY => ulsfo, # Malaysia
465877aa 2014-02-05 21:05:44 -0600      PH => ulsfo, # Philippines
465877aa 2014-02-05 21:05:44 -0600      SG => ulsfo, # Singapore
1657beef 2014-02-06 14:39:23 +0200      TH => ulsfo, # Thailand
465877aa 2014-02-05 21:05:44 -0600      TW => ulsfo, # Taiwan, Province of China
cfacc95a 2014-02-06 13:58:32 +0200      VN => ulsfo, # Viet Nam

US
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              AK => ulsfo, # Alaska
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              AZ => ulsfo, # Arizona
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              CA => ulsfo, # California
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              CO => ulsfo, # Colorado
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              HI => ulsfo, # Hawaii
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              ID => ulsfo, # Idaho
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              MT => ulsfo, # Montana
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              NM => ulsfo, # New Mexico
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              NV => ulsfo, # Nevada
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              OR => ulsfo, # Oregon
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              UT => ulsfo, # Utah
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              WA => ulsfo, # Washington
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              WY => ulsfo, # Wyoming

Canada
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              AB => ulsfo, # Alberta
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              BC => ulsfo, # British Columbia
7890e1fd 2014-02-06 15:53:26 +0200              NT => ulsfo, # Northwest Territories
ba8e43dc 2014-02-06 14:40:02 +0200              YT => ulsfo, # Yukon Territory

Analytics/Reports/ULSFOImpact

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